El Nino strong enough to reverse trade winds

Posted on August 11, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

El Niño means tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, which improves chances that typhoons will form…typhoons on both sides of the equator are helping to reinforce a big burst of westerly winds along the equator. These westerly wind bursts are a hallmark of El Niño, and help push subsurface warm water toward the coast of South America. If enough warm water butts up against Peru, the normal cold water ocean current there can get shut off, exacerbating the pattern.

Exactly how this all gets kicked off is an area of active research, but it’s clear that big El Niños need deviant trade winds to maintain the feedback loop. During especially strong El Niños, like this year’s promises to be, the trade winds can sometimes reverse direction—and this week’s off-the-charts wind surge is at record-strength for so early in an El Niño event.

>more> ClimateCrocks

PS Typhoon Soudelor hits Taiwan reported rainfall 1.5m in 48 hours – ouch!

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Population of India to overtake China less than a decade

Posted on August 11, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in less than a decade – six years sooner than previously forecast…That’s just one of the findings from the United Nations latest population report…Another surprise, fast-growing Nigeria is on course to outstrip the US to become the country with the third largest population, by about 2050.

Underlying threat of climate change is continuing population explosion. Inequality is supposed to have been improved, the only way people in developing countries recognise opportunity being more attractive than having children. Some progress has been made but not fast enough.

>more> ABC World Today

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Jaw dropping news in solar vs fossil fuels debate

Posted on August 10, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

In the electric power industry, when a major power plant loses its connection to the grid, instantly, dramatically unbalancing supply and demand of electricity. Blackouts follow if there isn’t an instant response…engineering community assumption that, when that kind of supply-demand imbalance incident happens, there will be automatic response within 5-6 seconds from conventional (gas, coal, hydro) generators to stabilize power supply.

How valid this assumption is matters, because it’s used by practically every utility study and commentary aimed at highlighting limits to using renewable energy to replace fossil-fuel power plants…. how jaws hit the floor as NERC’s investigation into reliability questions found that all three of the gas generator manufacturers (GE, ABB, Siemens) predominant in the U.S. have, for years, been delivering equipment that fails to provide this “essential reliability service”.

As it happens, solar can make those changes, and has, a whole lot more quickly than gas plants. In Hawaii earlier this year, the solar industry successfully changed the control settings on 800,000 solar panel inverters through internet connections to make solar in Hawaii support frequency and voltage in similar emergencies.

>more> RenewEconomy

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Where to for climate change?

Posted on August 10, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

“Where to for climate change?” is the topic of a talk to be given by David Karoly, chairman of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Melbourne, next Sunday, August 16. Karoly, who has recently been studying the impacts of climate change on weather extremes, will speak about how a changing climate affects people and natural systems and the ways in which the effects might be mitigated. He speaks at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Cranbourne, at 2pm with the talk hosted by the friends group of the gardens. It costs $20/$15 members, phone 8774 2483 for a booking form.

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With coal going begging, it’s time to stop digging

Posted on August 10, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast
Instead of splashing billions of dollars building their coal mines from scratch, instead of enticing governments with fees Screen-Shot-2015-06-30-at-1.57.54-pmand illusion of jobs, instead of battling bitter local communities and tearing up farmland, you have to wonder whether Shenhua and Adani have thought of simply buying one on the cheap – a coal mine that is.
…particularly Peabody, which reported this week a $US1 billion loss for June quarter. At $US5.8 billion, its debts tower over its sharemarket value of just $US350 million, and it has mostly unfunded mine rehabilitation liabilities of $US2.5 billion. Alas Adani and Shenhua are determined to do things the hard way…As it staves off oblivion, Peabody would surely countenance an offer by Shenhua for one of its Hunter Valley assets, replete with existing port and rail infrastructure, all requisite approvals and an established workforce.
In any event, economic case for digging through the water table on theLiverpool Plains hardly stacks up. Shenhua forked out an astronomical $300 million to the NSW government to get its exploration licence, another $213 million on land purchases and, with another $200 million due for a mining licence, reckons the project will owe it a cool $1 billion before it loads its first truck with coal. In light of falling demand for coal globally the NSW government could help Shenhua save face by declining a mining licence and handing back its $300 million and potential for adverse court case in the event that TPP(Trans Pacific Partnership) trade deal – with its mechanisms for companies to sue governments – is signed by the Australian government. Per graph, world outlook for coal is steady decline in demand.

>more> TheAge

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Great pretenders in Qld coal industry

Posted on August 10, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

99 per cent of Queenslanders don’t work in coal industry.
96 per cent of Queensland government revenue doesn’t come from coal royalties.
93 per cent of Queensland’s gross state product not from coal production; regardless leaders regularly exaggerate role of coal in Queensland

A slump in prices and Chinese demand will see revenue share sink to $1.68bn or 3.3% in 2015-16. In the same year, revenue from vehicle registrations will reach $1.65bn or 3.2% of total revenue.Untitled

Despite the relatively small size of the coal industry, it is clearly able to make a lot of noise. In the Queensland economy, it’s the mouse that roars. Queenslanders think the coal industry employs ten times more people than it really does; and contributes five times as much revenue to the state budget than it does.
Qld2

If Queenslanders better understood actual size of the industry, and that it’s 80% foreign owned, it’s likely opposition would be <even> greater. ..vast majority – 85 to 90% – of coal Queensland produces is exported…Typically their reports rely on economic modelling that is mathematically certain to overstate their industry’s importance, modelling which has been described as “biased” by ABS(Australian Bureau of Statistics) and “abused” by Productivity Commission.

Simplifying nature of Queensland economy to focus on a small number of industries is convenient for politicians trying to communicate their messages.

Premier Newman expands view of state’s important industries to include not just coal, but also agriculture, tourism and construction…state’s “four pillar economy”. This is also a gross simplification…account for only 23 per cent of employment in the state and only 25 per cent of its economic output.

State budget papers reveal contribution of fast-growing export industry, based on coal seam gas, is expected to remain less than 1% of total state government revenue in five years time.

We like to romanticise the complexities and sinews of our economy but we really have a very simple business plan – we survive on the charges we raise to allow people to dig up black rocks and red rocks: coal and iron ore.54 –Barnaby Joyce, federal Member of Parliament and former Queensland Senator

>more> AustraliaInstitute “The Mouse That Roars – Coal in the Queensland economy”
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Adani sacking Queensland coal workers at its Carmichael mine, conflicting reports

Posted on August 5, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

Indian company Adani has begun sacking workers on its Carmichael mine project, raising fresh questions about the status of Australia’s largest coal development…staff working on the early phases of the mine, which would open Queensland’s vast Galilee Basin, were told last Thursday and Friday they were out of a job… company intends to keep skeleton workforce of about 20 people…remainder, about 90 engineers, safety officers and other mining personnel, have been told their departures will be staggered between the months of August and March.. …Company sources said workers were told they were being made redundant because of delays in getting approvals for the project from the Queensland and federal governments… ..”They’re basically doing what GVK did – sacking everyone but keeping a few people there,” one source said…Adani had stood down two major contractors – its project manager Parsons Brinckerhoff and Korean construction company Posco, which had been touted as an investor in the final project…The company has also suspended four engineering firms, WorleyParsons, Aurecom, Aecon and SMEC.

>more> TheAge

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Sold for $1.00 Queensland coal mine

Posted on August 5, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

Like mobile phones, you can now pick a coal mine up for $1. Literally $1. Isaac Plains coal mine in Queensland’s Bowen Basin changed hands this week for less than cost of a cup of coffee. But, like  cheap mobile phone, long contracts with expensive calls, cheap coal mines come with the liability to tidy up the enormous mess that comes with digging enormous holes, shifting millions of tonnes of dirt and extracting tens of millions of tonnes of coal…The fact that someone who bought a company for $860 million four years ago is willing to sell it for $1 today is their problem not ours, right? Wrong…We can never get money back for poles and wires we didn’t need but we haven’t yet lost the money we will lose when the mining companies walk away from their obligations… Hundreds of thousands of jobs will be created in coming decades in energy efficiency, renewable energy construction, redesigning and rebuilding our electricity grid and in decommissioning old coal mines and power stations. The question isn’t whether it will happen, but how much it will cost and who will pay for it. The sooner we admit what is happening, the less money we will waste heading in the wrong direction…Whether it “believes” in climate change or not, surely Abbott government believes what the market is saying about the value of coal and the cost of renewable energy. If coal mines are selling for $1, then, whether you think it is good for humanity or not, coal clearly isn’t a good long-run investment.
>more> TheAge

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Brand new German coal plant worth just 1 Euro

Posted on August 5, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

The new hard coal plant going up in Hamm, Germany, is apparently worthless and may never go into operation.

In mid-July, German media reported (in German) that 23 municipal utilities wanted to sell their stakes in Hamm D and E, which have a collective capacity of 1.6 gigawatts. RWE made them a surprising offer: €1 per municipal for their entire holdings – initially worth €2.5 billion (report in German). In other words, the €2.5 billion stake is now worth 23 euros.

>more> RenewEconomy

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True or false – $60Billion claim by Abbott about cost Labor renewable energy plan?

Posted on August 5, 2015 by groundswellbasscoast

Another foot-in-mouth disease outburst by PM, obvious, even to Blind Freddy that $60B is mistaken capital cost.

Ageing power plants. More than 75% of our fossil-fuel power plants are past their use-by date. Assuming a 50-year lifetime, more than a third of the existing coal-fired power plants will be retired by 2030. Replacing these with the most cost-effective new sources has to happen anyway, and this inevitably means new capital costs – no matter what the energy source.

Wind’s cost-effectiveness. According to the 2013 Australian Energy Technology Assessment of LCOE, wind is the most cost-effective form of commercially proven new-build power generation, even without a price on carbon (and will be joined by large scale solar by 2030). The 2014 ACT Government wind power reverse auction has now demonstrated this to be the case, having achieved an LCOE of A$81.50 per megawatt hour (MWh) locked in for 20 years. This is equivalent to a discounted LCOE of about A$65 per MWh at current rates, which outcompetes existing gas and new-build coal generation.

>more> TheConversation

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